DTN Midday Livestock Comments          05/01 11:46

   Cautionary Tones Keep Livestock Complex Trading Mostly Lower

   With traders still leery of overly supporting the livestock contracts amid 
mixed consumer demand and the potential that more bird flu cases may develop, 
traders remain cautious in this marketplace.  

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mostly lower into Wednesday's noon hour as 
traders lack substantial support from the market's fundamentals to justify 
trading contracts higher. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed, and at 
this point, it's looking like the week's trade will be delayed until Thursday 
or Friday. July corn is up 1 cent per bushel and July soybean meal is down 
$4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 119.37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

   Thankfully the cattle complex isn't seeing as severe a descent as the market 
did throughout Tuesday's trade, but the vast majority of the live cattle 
contracts are still trading lower. The spot June and the nearby August 2024 
contracts are the only two months trading higher -- and only modestly so. June 
live cattle are up $0.77 at $175.80, August live cattle are up $0.17 at $173.27 
and October live cattle are steady at $177.05. The slight support in the nearby 
contracts is likely just an attempt to recover some position as traders dumped 
the market dramatically Tuesday after hearing USDA would begin testing ground 
beef for avian influenza. No cash cattle trade has developed at this point in 
the week, and without much packer interest noted yet in the market, the week's 
trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or later. Asking prices are noted 
in the South at $185 to $186 but remain unestablished in the North.

   Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.45 ($293.92) and select down 
$1.01 ($288.94) with a movement of 90 loads (59.57 loads of choice, 10.72 loads 
of select, 3.43 loads of trim and 16.11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With boxed beef prices lower and the live cattle complex trading mostly 
lower, the feeder cattle complex is heading into Wednesday's noon hour fully 
lower. May feeders are down $1.27 at $243.30, August feeder cattle are down $1 
at $254.40 and September feeders are down $1.02 at $255.55. Even though the 
futures complex was pressured on Tuesday, sales in the countryside were well 
supported. We are roughly six weeks away from the first big video sales of the 
year where feeder cattle and buyer confidence in the 2024 market will be tested.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex at Wednesday's start appeared as though the market had 
adequate support to trade higher, but that idea quickly failed. June lean hogs 
are down $1.85 at $100.62, July lean hogs are down $1.47 at $103.95 and August 
lean hogs are down $1.02 at $102.37. Pork cutout values are down slightly, and 
given that the belly is the leading cause of why the carcass price is lower, 
it's likely afternoon's carcass price could be weaker as well. Traders are 
hoping for a fruitful export report on Thursday morning, but time will only 
tell.

   The projected lean hog index for April 30 is up $0.34 at $90.60, and the 
actual index for April 29 is down $0.10 at $90.26. Hog prices are higher on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.34 with a weighted average price of 
$91.06, ranging from $83.36 to $95 on 4,372 head and a five-day rolling average 
of $90.63. Pork cutouts total 155.96 loads with 145.35 loads of pork cuts and 
10.61 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $98.38.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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