DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/28 10:55

   Corn, Soybean Wheat Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
18 to 20 cents higher; wheat futures are 12 to 18 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 80 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 15 points lower. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies 
are firmer with crude up 1.50. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are weaker with gold down 10.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday, following soybeans higher 
and scoring fresh highs again with spread action firming again. Ethanol margins 
continue to deteriorate as stocks pushed to the highest levels since last May, 
with short-term demand remaining soft. Trade will continue to look for further 
sales confirmation on the daily wire, which was quiet for corn Friday. Basis 
should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term with weather 
likely to slow short-term movement in some areas. Trade will continue watching 
South American weather as we head into second crop planting and development. On 
the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.05 then 
the fresh high scored Friday morning at 6.35 1/4 as resistance.  

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 18 to 20 cents higher at midday with trade pressing into 
new highs again with spread action remaining solid as the front months get 
closer to flat. The daily export wire confirmed some of the rumored export 
sales with 264,000 metric tons (mt) of new crop to China; 251,500 mt of new 
crop to unknown; and 141,514 mt of old crop to Mexico. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 
higher and oil is 130 to 140 points higher. Basis is flat to weaker short term. 
Crush margins are hanging in there with the product strength this week, with 
meal finally trying to consolidate over $400 a ton. Early harvest is underway 
in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in 
February with a more mixed forecast again into February. On the March soybean 
chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $14.79, with trade well above 
the 20-day at $13.97 support.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 10 to 18 cents higher at midday, following the row crops 
higher after the midweek washout on better weather and a slowdown in the 
escalation of Russia/Ukraine tensions. The dollar is near new highs after the 
Fed statement Wednesday. Plains weather looks a little drier in the short term 
with the crop likely to stay dormant and some areas having better snow cover 
now. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago, moving the premium to $1.32 on the 
March, with KC at a 16-cent premium in flat action. KC March chart support is 
the 20-day moving average at $7.90, which we are just above; resistance is the 
Upper Bollinger Band at $8.30, which we are have pulled back from after testing 
Thursday.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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